A pipeline breaks the sales cycle into clear stages, which are passed in order. A common breakdown in SMEs:
The advantage of these stages is that they are objective: opportunities are not classified based on the salesperson’s feeling, but on a verifiable fact (“has a quote been sent?”). This makes the pipeline readable and comparable across salespeople.
At each stage, we assign an increasing probability of closing. Forecasting involves weighting each opportunity’s amount by its probability.
Weighted forecast = Σ (opportunity amount × stage probability)
Numerical example.
| Opportunity | Amount | Stage | Probability | Weighted value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | €10,000 | Qualification | 30% | €3,000 |
| B | €20,000 | Proposal | 50% | €10,000 |
| C | €15,000 | Negotiation | 70% | €10,500 |
Weighted forecast = €3,000 + €10,000 + €10,500 = €23,500.
The raw pipeline totals €45,000, but the realistic forecast is €23,500 once probabilities are applied. These percentages are not fixed: they should be aligned with the actual conversion rates observed between stages; otherwise, the forecast remains mere guesswork.
Beyond forecasting, the pipeline helps diagnose sales activity:
| KPI | What it reveals |
|---|---|
| Number of opportunities per stage | A bottleneck (e.g., everything stalls at the proposal stage) |
| Conversion rate between stages | Where deals are lost |
| Average deal size | The quality of incoming opportunities |
| Average time spent in a stage | Stagnant deals that need follow-up |
| Coverage (pipeline / target) | Whether the deal volume is sufficient to meet the target |
An empty pipeline upstream signals a sales slump two months later: it is a leading indicator, not a rear-view mirror. That said, each opportunity must be kept up to date at the correct stage. The Orizen CRM visualises this pipeline, applies stage-based probabilities and continuously calculates the weighted forecast.
Discover the Orizen answer: Orizen CRM, modular and built for French SMEs.
Essai gratuit 14 jours What the Orizen CRM module costsA sales pipeline tracks named sales opportunities, each with an amount, a stage (prospecting, qualification, proposal, negotiation, closing) and a probability of winning; it is used to forecast revenue. A conversion funnel describes an anonymous audience flow (visitor → lead → customer) in volumes and conversion rates, from a marketing perspective. The funnel feeds the pipeline: qualified leads become opportunities.
Multiply each opportunity’s amount by its stage probability, then sum the results. For example, a €20,000 deal at the 'proposal' stage with a 50% probability contributes €10,000 to the forecast. The sum of these weighted values gives a more realistic forecast than the raw pipeline. Reliability depends on the probabilities: they should be based on actual observed conversion rates rather than rough estimates.
Qualification checks whether an opportunity is worth pursuing: real need, budget, identified decision-maker, deadline. A framework like MEDDIC structures this stage and prevents wasting time on deals that will not close. Proper early-stage qualification improves the entire pipeline: forecasts become more reliable, and sales teams focus their efforts on truly winnable deals.